A mere 19% of gamblers betting on spot Ether ETF approvals are optimistic about a positive outcome for ETH ETF applicants before May ends.
Crypto enthusiasts are placing their bets on whether a spot Ether exchange-traded fund (ETF) will gain approval from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before May 31.
On Polygon-based crypto gambling site Polymarket, traders are wagering on the likelihood of a spot Ether ETF application receiving approval before May concludes. With over $2.4 million in bets, approximately 81% of participants are skeptical about the prospects of a spot Ether ETF approval before the month’s end.
Traders purchase shares predicting either a “Yes” or “No” outcome, with share values reflecting the bet’s odds and fluctuating similarly to the crypto market. Presently, a Yes share costs $0.19, while a No share is valued at $0.81, indicating fewer believers in spot ETH ETF approvals before May wraps up.
The leading trader holding Yes shares has approximately $84,000 in holdings, whereas the top No holder possesses around $127,000 in shares.
If the SEC greenlights a spot Ether ETF before the May 31 deadline, the market will resolve, enabling Yes shareholders to cash out their earnings. Conversely, if approvals don’t materialize by then, the opposite outcome applies.
This isn’t the first instance of crypto traders wagering on ETF approval results. Earlier, on Jan. 5, Polymarket drew criticism from Reddit users for bets on spot Bitcoin ETF approvals by the SEC before Jan. 15.
One Reddit user disparaged the betting as foolish, akin to risking dollars to gain dimes, while another humorously contemplated risking their child’s college fund for a bet.
Total bets on ETF outcomes have soared to at least $12 million on the predictions market. Notably, the SEC approved the trading and listing of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs on Jan. 10.
Investment management firm Grayscale remains confident in spot Ether ETF approvals in May. Grayscale’s Chief Legal Officer, Craig Salm, stated on March 25 that the SEC’s perceived lack of engagement with applicants doesn’t necessarily foretell approval or rejection.