The competition for a recognized spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund may be impacted by the next Grayscale decision.
The lawsuit brought by Grayscale Investments against the federal securities regulator is getting closer to a probable conclusion, setting the stage for a pivotal moment in the world of cryptocurrency investment. All eyes are on the result of this crucial court dispute as the coming week holds the possibility of a decision.
A prominent financial figure named Scott Johnsson took to Twitter to share an intriguing viewpoint as the court drama played out. He emphasized that United States District Courts often have a changeover of law clerks in August, which forces judges to address open matters in order to provide a fresh start for the incoming team.
March '21/'22 cases with decisions within 160 days of oral: 30/32 (94%)
— Scott Johnsson (@SGJohnsson) August 14, 2023
Days since Grayscale (March '23) oral: 160 days
Why should we expect August? Because law clerks for DC generally cycle in/out this month, so judges aim to clear prior caseload before the new guard arrives. https://t.co/vVj0dHus90
Historical data support this tendency, showing that in March 2021 and 2022, 30 of 32 cases were decided within 160 days following the oral hearing, resulting in decisions in August. Coincidentally, on March 7th, Grayscale delivered its oral arguments in opposition to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, marking the completion of 160 days. The anticipation soars since there are so few instances from that era that haven’t been solved.
Related: Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Outperforms Other ETFs in ARK Invest's Portfolio in Q2 2023
Projections and Insights
James Seyffart, a Bloomberg analyst, claims that the decision might occur as soon as August 15. His claim has added to the buzz of anticipation. His projection, the result of meticulous observation, is known as a “theoretical Grayscale lawsuit decision date.”
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Johnsson agrees with Seyffart’s foresight in a series of observations, calling it a “pretty decently good bet.” Leaders in the industry and fans alike are on edge as the verdict approaches.
Industry Momentum Hangs in the Balance
The decision has a significant impact on the cryptocurrency investment landscape. This choice will make or break Grayscale’s plans to turn its Bitcoin trust into a spot Bitcoin ETF. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission denied Grayscale’s application, allegedly treating identical investment vehicles differently. This led to the lawsuit.
As excitement builds, there are more people speaking out in favor of Grayscale. Influential people including ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood and ETF analyst Nate Geraci have expressed optimism about Grayscale’s likelihood of winning.
Grayscale has proposed a strategy to level the playing field in the midst of this legal fork in the road: simultaneous approval of all Bitcoin spot ETF applications to remove any illegitimate advantage held by certain firms.
The world is eagerly awaiting the decision in the Grayscale-SEC court battle because it will likely change the financial landscape.
Related: Cathie Wood Predicts SEC Approval for Multiple Spot Crypto ETFs